The most important and profound contest taking place in the November general election is for the heart and soul of the Democratic party.
Republicans are merely concerned with retaining their majorities in the House and Senate.
For the Democrats, the November elections could determine the direction of the party for decades.
For fifty years there has been a struggle for control of the Democratic party. The struggle has been between capitalist establishment Democrats and leftist anti-war Democrats
Establishment Democrats have won every presidential primary contest except for 1972 when McGovern was nominated.
In 2013, the Democrats adopted a policy which confers automatic delegate status upon all Democratic incumbents in Congress, sitting Democratic governors, present and former presidents, party leaders, et al. These automatic delegates are commonly referred to as superdelegates, and are empowered to vote for whomever they please, without regard to the votes of rank and file Democrats. In so doing, superdelegates can have the voting power of tens of thousands of voters, and can negate the votes of tens of thousands of voters.
This remarkably undemocratic policy of the Democratic National Committee now provides a major incentive for the left wing of the party to join Republicans in defeating incumbent establishment Democrats this election cycle.
Defeated Members of Congress and Senators will not be automatic delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, and thus will not be able to vote against Bernie Sanders or any other progressive contender for the presidential nomination.
Because of gerrymandering, most Congressional seats are safely in control of the party holding them. For a party to maintain or regain a House majority requires retaining or flipping a relatively small number of vulnerable seats.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted 69 Republican seats as vulnerable, 23 in which Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has targeted 36 Democratic seats as vulnerable, 12 in which Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.
The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos’ presidential results by congressional district data. These trends can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2018 elections.
- There are 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08
- There are 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-17, and WI-03
- There are 20 House seats that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016: IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IL-12, IL-17, ME-02, MN-01, MN-02, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-02, NJ-03, NV-03, NY-01, NY-02, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21, PA-17, and WI-03